Regional Inequality of Carbon Emissions in China and Its Influencing Factors Based on Quantitative Modeling and Factorization Algorithm

Abstract

Regional heterogeneity in population, economy, and energy consumption has created significant spatial imbalances in China’s carbon emissions, complicating the allocation of provincial reduction targets. This paper employs the Theil Index to quantify regional carbon emission inequality across 31 provinces from 2012 to 2021, decomposing it into inter- and intra-regional components. An extended Kaya identity is used to assess contributions of four factors—energy structure, energy intensity, labor productivity, and employment rate. Results show inter-regional inequality is the dominant and growing source of overall inequality, while intra-regional inequality remains stable. Energy intensity and labor productivity are identified as the primary driving factors.